Turkish, Azerbaijan and Georgian ‘trilateralism' (07 April 2013; Today's Zaman)

The week before last, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia (TAG) met in the Georgian city of Batumi for a second trilateral meeting following the first in Trabzon last June.

However, after the Batumi meeting between the foreign ministers of TAG, there are various questions about the effectiveness of this platform, which has the potential to improve the effectiveness of cooperation at various levels (economic, political, cultural, etc.) between the three countries. It can be argued that the trilateral meeting format as a political platform among various European states had successes during the post-Cold War period, but there is no recipe for success. In each case, the coordination and vision makes the format either a success or a failure. For example, last year, three major EU member states in Southeast Europe -- Bulgaria, Greece and Romania -- held a similar meeting with the aim of putting forward a common position on various issues at the EU level, for which regional coordination is helpful. It is worth remembering that the core goals in this case were totally different to what TAG are aiming to achieve. Before the current round of TAG meetings, Turkey launched similar meetings between the Iranian, Azerbaijani and Turkish foreign ministers. The aim there was to reduce tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan; it was clear that there was little demonstrable commitment to collectively representing regional interests in a multilateral negotiating forum in the case of the Iranian-Azerbaijani-Turkish platform. It may well be that “TAG trilateralism” represents an entirely different kind of initiative to the above examples. What is certainly new is that the current platform envisages formalized cooperation between regional strategic partners, whereby they pool together their material and principled assets in order to achieve clear national interests in multilateral forums of negotiation. Reflecting on the political value of these meetings, there are a few identifiable tools to improve the effectiveness of the TAG meetings: Firstly, the meetings between the foreign ministers have broadly coincided with initiatives to support economic cooperation. The trilateral TAG Business Forum (TAG-BF) was held in Tbilisi in February 2012; the second one was held in Kars in June and a third one is planned in Azerbaijan in May 2013. This economic-based cooperation has strengthened other communications at the trilateral level, where there is a need for better links in the educational, academic, media sectors, etc. From that perspective, there is need for a platform for managing and adding initiatives, speaking frankly about problems and putting forward goals at the international level. Accordingly, both the Trabzon Declaration and the results of the Batumi meeting reaffirm TAG's support for one another in international organizations, in addition to holding consultations on various regional issues and beyond. But, it should also be noted that when one country can legitimately speak for all three, their interests will be better represented. What is necessary is for all three countries to jointly create concrete goals for the short, mid and long-term, as well as a consultation body, like a “counsel” for broadening and enhancing possibilities and effectiveness. This will ensure that trilateralism stays on the agenda. It would be useful to hold meetings on a regular basis and for this, a coordination body is needed. It is worth recalling that the “geopolitical romanticism” of the 1990s resulted in effective coordination between these states with support from US, but each of them prioritized their national profiles, laying claim to such labels as the “gateway to Europe,” the “hub of energy transport,” etc. But these labels also demonstrated the potential of the region, and moreover, the countries were not contradicting each another's claims. Now given the shifting axis of global powers with interests in the region, in addition to the unstable regional dynamics with periodic spikes in tensions, the risk of renewed hostilities appears to impose limits on the fulfillment of the broader objectives of trilateralism. The fact is that any long-term prospects for the trilateral initiative hinge more on the economic underpinnings of the relationship. In this respect, the latest trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of TAG approved of the plan that was adopted at the Trabzon meeting -- the Trilateral Sectoral Cooperation Action Plan for 2013-2015, which determines concrete actions and cooperation plans in all major fields of mutual interest. Beyond this, the important aspect of TAG cooperation in the East-West dimension is the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway project, which provides the possibility of connecting Asia with Europe -- and, importantly, bypassing Russia and Iran. The work is expected to be completed by the end of this year. The foreign ministers' joint communiqué mentions the BTK as the shortest and the most effective route for the reverse transit of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) forces and cargo from Afghanistan in 2014, which is very important for both NATO and the US. This is not the first time that the three countries have mentioned that they are open to playing a bigger role both during the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan as well as in the post-2014 period. From a political point of view, the three countries' political considerations are clear. If the three countries succeed in making the BTK the “shortest, most profitable” route, they will challenge the Russian railway hegemony in the post-Soviet space, as well place pressure on Iran and impose strategic isolation. The shift in geopolitical dynamics since the 1990s has placed new requirements on the three-way relationship. Now, trilateralism between TAG is not simply a convenient regional alliance but a strategic one based on both short term and long term considerations within the region and at the international level. http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-311917-turkish-azerbaijan-and-georgian-trilateralism.html